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Randolph H Pherson

Randolph PhersonSince my retirement in 2000 from the National Intelligence Council as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America, I have been developing and teaching analytic techniques and critical thinking and writing skills to both government and private sector analysts in the United States, Europe, and the Middle East. I collaborated with Richards J. Heuer, Jr. in launching the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses methodology and computer software and in writing Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis. I have also co-authored Cases in Intelligence Analysis, Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence, the Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques, and the Analytic Writing Guide. I am CEO of Globalytica, LLC and President of Pherson Associates, LLC. At Globalytica, we developed a suite of collaborative web-based software, TH!NK SuiteTM, and are building a set of freeware tools for analysts. In 2013, we began certifying students and analysts in the use of structured innovative techniques, structured diagnostic techniques, foresight analysis, and analytic production and presentation. When I retired, I was awarded the Distinguished Intelligence Medal for my service as NIO for Latin America as well as the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal.  I earned my A.B. from Dartmouth College and M.A. in International Relations from Yale University. 

 

 

Publications

Books

Heuer, Richards J. Jr., and Randolph H. Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis. Washington, DC: CQ Press, 2011.

Beebe, Sarah Miller, and Randolph H. Pherson, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action.  Washington, DC:  CQ Press, 2012.

Pherson, Katherine Hibbs and Randolph H. Pherson, Critical Thinking for Strategic Intelligence. Washington, DC: CQ Press/Sage Publications, 2013.

Handbooks

Pherson, Randolph H., Handbook of Analytic Tools and Techniques. Reston, VA: Pherson Associates, LLC, 2008.  

Pherson, Randolph H. and Louis M. Kaiser, Analytic Writing Guide. Reston, VA: Pherson Associates, LLC, 2013 (forthcoming in summer 2013)

Book Chapters

Pherson, Randolph H. and Vaughn F. Bishop, “Cyber Attack on the Office of Intelligence Production: A Collaboration Simulation,” in Ruben Arcos and William Lahneman, editors, Simulation and Gaming. Madrid, Spain: Sage Publications, (forthcoming , 2013)

Pherson, Randolph H. “The New Age of Structured Analytic Techniques” in George, Roger Z., and James B. Bruce, editors, Analyzing Intelligence: Origins, Obstacles, and Innovations.  Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press, 3d ed., (forthcoming, 2014)

Articles

Pherson, Randolph H., “Overcoming Analytic Mindsets: Five Simple Techniques,” National Security and Law Society Conference on Emerging Issues in National and International Security, American University Washington College of Law, Washington, DC, 21-22 March 2005.

Pherson, Randolph H., “Rethinking National Security in a Globalizing World:

A New Ecology,” Revista Romănă De Studii De Intelligence (Romanian

Journal of Intelligence Studies), București, Romania: Nr. 1-2, December 2009.

Pherson, Randolph H. and Joan McIntyre, “The Essence of Collaboration: The IC Experience,” Collaboration in the National Security Arena:  Myths and Reality – What Science and Experience Can Contribute to its Success, Washington DC: Topical Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA), Multi-Agency/Multi-Disciplinary White Papers in Support of Counter-Terrorism and Counter-WMD in the Office of Secretary of Defense/DDR&E/RTTO, June 2009.

Pherson, Randolph H., “Transformation Cells: An Innovative Way to Institutionalize Collaboration,” Collaboration in the National Security Arena:  Myths and Reality – What Science and Experience Can Contribute to its Success, Washington DC: Topical Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA), Multi-Agency/Multi-Disciplinary White Papers in Support of Counter-Terrorism and Counter-WMD in the Office of Secretary of Defense/DDR&E/RTTO, June 2009.

Pherson, Randolph H., “Breaking the Mold in Developing Training Courses on Collaboration,” Collaboration in the National Security Arena:  Myths and Reality – What Science and Experience Can Contribute to its Success, Washington DC: Topical Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA), Multi-Agency/Multi-Disciplinary White Papers in Support of Counter-Terrorism and Counter-WMD in the Office of Secretary of Defense/DDR&E/RTTO, June 2009.

Pherson, Randolph H. and Sarah Miller Beebe, “How Do Cognitive Pitfalls Limit Our Ability to Anticipate Rare Events?” International Studies Association Annual Conference, New Orleans, Louisiana, February 2010.   

Pherson, Randolph H., “Cuba Ungoverned: How Could It Happen and What Would It Mean?” International Studies Association Annual Conference, Montreal, Canada, March 2011.

Pherson, Randolph H., “Making Critical Thinking More Visual: Integrating New Media into Intelligence Analysis,” International Studies Association Annual Conference, San Diego, California, April 2012.

Pherson, Randolph H., “Rethinking National Security in a Globalizing World:

A New Ecology,” “Occasional Papers: A Selection of Articles,” Revista Romănă De Studii De Intelligence (Romanian Review of Intelligence Studies), București, Romania: 2013.

 

Pherson, Randolph H., “Tracking the Spread of Structured Analytic Techniques: Trends and Traps,” International Studies Association Annual Conference, San Francisco, California, April 2013.

Saunders, Karen and Randolph H. Pherson, “Using Structured Analytic Techniques to Assess the Interrelationship between Warlordism and International Diffusion,” International Studies Association Annual Conference, San Francisco, California, April 2013.

Boardman, Mary and Randolph H. Pherson, “Indicators: A Rigorous and Adaptive Analytic Technique for Addressing Diffusion,” International Studies Association Annual Conference, San Francisco, California, April 2013.

 

Pherson, Randolph H., “The Five Habits of the Master Thinker,” International Association for Intelligence Education Conference, El Paso, Texas, May 2013.

 

Pherson, Randolph H., “Teaching Critical Thinking: A Fad or a Necessity?” International Association for Intelligence Education Conference, El Paso, Texas, May 2013.

Occasional Papers

Pherson, Randolph H., “Intelligence and Medicine: Parallel Cognitive Traps,” www.pherson.org, 2009.

Pherson, Randolph H., “The Tradecraft of Warning: Overcoming Cognitive Barriers,” www.pherson.org, 2009.

Pherson, Randolph H., Richards J. Heuer, Jr., and Sarah Miller Beebe, “Analytic Teams, Social Networks, and Collaborative Behaviour,” www.pherson.org, 2009.

Pherson, Randolph H., Alan Schwartz, and Elizabeth Manak “Anticipating Rare Events: The Role of ACH and Other Structured Analytic Techniques,” www.pherson.org, 2009.